Multimedia Reporting (Utsler)

Illustration: Becka Cremer

High fuel and food prices have hurt hog farmers when they go to market.

Early rain led to late planting. Late planting led poor crop yields. Poor crop yields led to higher grain prices. And, it's those high prices that have Larry Sorrell worried.

Sorrell is the owner of Kansas Heritage Meats, which distributes Red Wattle hogs raised by four different growers in Kansas to buyers around the country. This year has been particularly difficult because the cost of grain is double the historical price and delivery costs have tripled.

"You see ups and downs all the time," Sorrell said. "That's what you need to remember. In the 50 years I've been raising hogs, though, this is the worst."

With fuel and grain prices high, Sorrell, like most hog farmers, is just hoping to break even. Profit, he said, will have to wait.

High input costs are threatening farms like Sorrell's. Though grain prices are falling some, experts say they will remain higher than usual. If hog farmers are to survive the current market, they have to change their approach and hold out for a drastic change.

Corn, milo (grain sorghum) and soybean meal are the main ingredients in a hog's diet, said Mike Tokach, Kansas State University swine specialist and professor of Animal Sciences and Industry. The ingredients to feed a pig have all increased to more than double the normal price — from about $50 per pig to about $100 for the same pig, Tokach said. This means that feed, which is normally about 55 percent to 60 percent of what it costs to raise a pig, is now about 75 percent to 80 percent of the cost to raise a pig, he said.

Crop prices are high this year because yields are expected to be low. Heavy rains and flooding, especially along the Mississippi River, delayed planting in the spring, said Mike Woolverton, Extension Grain Economist and professor of Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University. However, farmers expecting a weak yield planted about 1.3 million more acres of corn than the 86 million acres the USDA originally estimated.

"The question now is, 'Is it a good crop?'" Woolverton said. "It was planted late, in compacted soil, and the rain leached out fertilizer before it was planted."

Woolverton said the corn price has backed off in the past few weeks. It has dropped from about $7.50 a bushel to about $6.50 a bushel. However, Tokach said, this is well above historical prices of $2.50 or $3 a bushel.

"In the past few weeks, we've had nearly ideal conditions for growing corn: periodic rain, mild temperatures, high humidity — which corn loves," Tokach said. "What farmers need now are continued periodic rains."

The USDA has raised estimates for the corn crop yield, and, Woolverton said, the USDA will probably raise estimates again in the next report, which will be released mid-August.

"This is still below the trend line — below normal — because of late planting," Woolverton said, "but it's looking better for livestock farmers."

Until grain prices return to near-historical levels, hog producers are looking for alternative options.

Tokach said distillers grain, a byproduct of ethanol production, is one viable option. Distillers grain has increased in price, but not as much as other grains, he said. Farmers are also looking at ways to increase efficiency by changing the grain delivery systems so less is wasted. Breeding hogs that are genetically predisposed to be leaner and grinding grain into smaller sizes so it can be digested more efficiently are other techniques Tokach said are being employed.

Sorrell said his farm has cut back on the sow herd and is delivering meat less frequently to cut costs. This will work for a while, he said, but eventually the small herd will also mean less money coming in.

Neither Tokach — the swine specialist — nor Woolverton — the grain specialist, has encouraging words for livestock farmers like Sorrell.

"We don't expect corn prices to come back down to historical averages, and we don't expect this to be a short term problem," Tokach said.

Eventually, though, pork prices in the grocery stores will go up, which will put some producers out of business. This will reduce the amount of pork available so prices will go up and the remaining farmers may be able to make a profit, he said.

Woolverton said breaking even, or at least staying open, until prices change is the key.

"The situation is: Can they last long enough, stay in business long enough, for it to become profitable again?" Woolverton said. "They are bleeding money with grain prices so high. It's two early to tell about this crop, but at least we're moving in the right direction."