A report published Monday by the Center for Naval Analysis said global climate change threatens national security.
“National Security and the Threat of Climate Change” was compiled by an independent military advisory board consisting of 12 retired admirals and generals. It’s main focus was to evaluate the consequences climate change poses for national security. Much of the report examined how climate change could effect the U.S. Military in a global context, including disaster relief, migration, and conflict over water and food supplies. The report also noted the effects drought and decreased rainfall could have in the west-central United States and the High Plains aquifer that lies beneath the area and provides groundwater for irrigation.
“Three of the top grain-producing states-Texas, Kansas and Nebraska-each get 70 to 90 percent of their irrigation from the (High Plains) aquifer. Human-induced stresses on this groundwater have resulted in water-table declines greater than 100 feet in some areas,” the report said. “The already difficult situation could be greatly exacerbated by a decrease in rainfall predicted for the region.”
Sharon Billings, assistant professor in the Ecology and Evolutionary Biology department, studies the effects global climate change will have on the soil. Currently she conducts experiments that measure the carbon levels in soil when it’s exposed to high temperatures. She has found that Kansas soil, which already contains high amounts of carbon, reacts the most to high temperatures. The soil then produces more carbon and releases it into the atmosphere. That causes the temperatures to increase more. She said this could eventually effect Kansas’ agriculture production by decreasing the diversity of sustainable crops.
“If we continue on this path our children and their children and grandchildren will be in a very different and very much less stable world,” Billings said. “Different might be okay, but lack of stability is a real challenge. Climatic stability has promoted our civilization to begin with, it has allowed us to produce the agriculture that we are so dependent on.”
The CNA report also said that climate change could excel the spread of infectious diseases. Richard Williams, London graduate student, studies the transmission of the West Nile Virus through birds. He said higher temperatures could increase proliferation of West Nile because replication of the disease improves at higher temperatures.
“The probability of a mosquito becoming infected increases with temperature, as does the level of the infection. Probably in a hotter summer there will be a greater proliferation of infected birds and mosquitoes, making the likelihood of human infection higher,” Williams said. “Warmer temperatures might affect the West Nile transmission cycle by extending the breeding season thus enabling the virus to survive in Kansas over winter, though it is not clear that West Nile is killed off in winter.”
The CNA report calls for action from the Department of Defense to prepare the United States for a warmer climate with increased severe weather events. It also calls for government action to reduce greenhouse gases.
Lee Gerhard, principal geologist of the Kansas Geological Survey, denounces the effect human activity has on global climate change. His studies have also shown that the earth is not currently on a warming trend. Gerhard and his colleague recently co-authored a study of glacial ages.
“Glacial ages are related to the position of oceans and continents through time, and there are "orders" of climate drivers, starting with the position of the earth in the solar system, and ending with very minor climate drivers, such as small meteorite impacts, volcanoes, La Nina and El Nino events, and human impacts,” Gerhard said. “All of these are short term and very minor in temperature effect, although volcanic eruptions can have a significant impact for a year or two.”
Gerhard said that putting constraints on emissions to reduce greenhouse gases will hurt the Kansas economy more than it will help the global climate.