In the last decade, the National Weather Service, one of the largest employers of meteorologists, filled all of its new positions and made no plans to increase hiring in its existing positions. This is not exactly the kind of news Jesse Lundquist, a senior in the atmospheric science department at KU, wants to hear.
Lundquist hoped for a career with the National Weather Service but with the job outlook estimated to remain stable, he knows that he has to keep his options open. He spent his last two summers interning at private meteorology firms instead. With decreased hiring by the National Weather Service, the U.S. Department of Labor estimates job opportunities to be greater in the private industry than in the Federal Government.
Nationwide, business is booming for the private meteorology industry. In June, the American Meteorological Association reported a 40 percent rise in the private meteorology market from $940 million in 1995 to $1.5 Billion today.
In the last 10 years, the number of private meteorologists in the nation increased from 2,500 to 7,200, according to the American Meteorological Society. WeatherData, a private meteorology company in Wichita, Kan., created five new positions in the last few months alone. Mike Smith, CEO of WeatherData, said the company had to hire more people to accommodate for its growth in business.
“We’re a 26-year-old company and the amount of inquiries we’re getting now is greater than it’s ever been anytime in our history,” Smith said. “Our service has been so effective for our clients that many of them are telling others about us. It’s creating a snowball effect.”
Weather or Not, a private weather consulting firm based out of Shawnee, Kan., has experienced a snowball effect, as well. Over the last three years, Weather or Not has increased its full-time staff by 50 percent, said Sara Croke, president of Weather or Not. She attributed the increase in staff to an increase in the company’s business. Croke said that in the last few years, Weather or Not’s business with public works has increased by 30 percent.
“It’s all about word of mouth,” Croke said. “The public works directors that we work with are saying: ‘They’re good. We like them. You ought to use them, too.’”
The private meteorology industry has the recent boom in technology to thank for its growth. Advancements in radar, satellite and computer technology over the last 20 years have drastically improved weather forecasting, according to the American Meteorological Society. The lead time for tornado warnings increased from five minutes in1987 to 13 minutes in 2004. Temperature and precipitation forecasts have improved as well. The American Meteorological Society said that 48-hour precipitation forecasts are just as accurate today as 24-hour forecasts were a decade ago.
“We can do so much more with weather forecasts now than we used to be able to,” Tucker said.
The increased ability to narrow forecasts down to specific times, sites and precipitation amounts has placed a greater demand on meteorologists to provide more personalized forecasts. The National Weather Service forecasts strictly for the general public and does not make specific forecasts, but the private industry does.
“Private forecasters basically do everything the National Weather Service doesn’t have time to do,” said Tucker.
Industries such as farming, construction, insurance, and even transportation are all cashing in on the benefits of industry-specific weather information - the kind of information provided only by the private industry.
The heavy construction industry, especially, has a lot of money tied up in the private weather industry, said Croke, president of Weather of Not. Depending on the size of the job, a construction company can lose anywhere from $10,000 to $40,000 per day because of the weather. Construction projects are only allowed a certain number of working days. When weather causes delays, companies can face up to $20,000 per day in late penalties alone.
Accurate forecasts for specific locations become crucial to companies financially, Croke said. If the forecast calls for a rainstorm, a construction business needs to start thinking about whether or not it is worth it to send and pay people to work, only to have them leave early because of the weather. If the company calls off a day of work and then it quits raining, it can lose money, too.
“That’s wasted money as far as a contractor’s concerned,” Croke said.
Croke said that companies can turn to private forecasters to help them make those kinds of decisions.
Not all companies see hiring a private meteorologist as the only way to save money. Some companies are decreasing the number of meteorologists they hire and spending more money on computer forecasting technology instead.
“Some feel they can make more of a profit that way,” Croke said.
Advancements in technology have resulted in computer programs capable of forecasting the weather. Croke said that some companies are using computers rather than live meteorologists to forecast because computers are cheaper and more efficient.
“What Weather or Not is seeing is a lack of accuracy and personal service,” said Croke.
While computer weather models have improved greatly, they are still not 100 percent accurate. A computer can always malfunction, and if companies are making important decisions based solely on what a computer outputs, it could be a major problem, said Croke.
“What it comes down to is: do you want to make a $30,000 decision based on a weather model?” Croke said.
She said that companies need a person, not just a computer, which they can turn to when they have questions about the weather.
“We’re seeing a real need for accuracy and live meteorologists for people to talk to,” Croke said.
Based on the current market conditions, this need for private meteorologists should continue to grow. In June, the American Meteorological Society estimated a market increase of 10 percent to 25 percent in the next five years – equal to a market size worth up to $2.8 Billion.
For atmospheric science students getting ready to graduate and anxious about where to find a job, these numbers can seem quite attractive. Lundquist said that though his goal is to eventually end up at the National Weather Service, he is willing to do what it takes to get there.
“If I can get to the National Weather Service by starting with the private industry, I’m all for it,” Lundquist said.
With the American Meteorological Society estimating an increase of 2,000 more private meteorologists in the next five years, Lundquist may be one of those thousands.